Investment Policy Committee Update - February 2024

Our call to “buy the dip” in mid-October, amid the heat of a tumultuous three-month pullback, has aged well. But after the Fed’s surprise dovish pivot and corresponding, Bullcember to Remember, almost-everything-rally, some consolidation is likely warranted as investors reassess valuations and the state of the economy.

 

This could lead to some market volatility, and to combat that, we’re reducing our active tilts and repositioning to take advantage of possible greater dispersion and potentially more frequent rotations in market leadership. Fundamentally, we remain confident in the strength of the U.S. consumer and the durability of softening inflation. This should provide the Fed with the backdrop to make a soft-landing in 2024. Rate cuts and an early unwind of Quantitative Tightening, along with potential election-year stimulus, could further spur the economy. While we may have reservations in the short-term, we still want to remain leaning toward the side of a risk-on stance.

 

Given the underappreciated but persistent strength of the U.S. economy, we believe it is possible we could see investor enthusiasm for domestic value factor stocks reemerge. Recent improvements in these companies’ profitability and margins have them showing the best fundamental momentum now. In general, our belief is looser liquidity and higher earnings lead to higher prices for value stocks.

 

With our February rebalance, we’re also incorporating an actively managed factor rotation strategy to harness the daily trading, transparency, and tax efficiency of the ETF structure, in conjunction with the benefits of single security selection. Following a year of high concentration and narrow stock return breadth, we believe factor makeup and timing within equities may be a key ingredient to driving outperformance in 2024.
 
However, we don't believe the economy is immune to challenges. Any reversal in inflation trends or deepening of geopolitical conflicts remain risks to our cautiously bullish thesis. The labor market remains tight, but some softening has become visible, with continuing jobless claims reaching two-year highs. This may incentivize the Fed to follow-through with rate cuts but could also arguably be an early indicator of further weakness ahead. We continue to position the bond side of the portfolio as a ballast for protecting against this sort of potential volatility, with the treasury barbell in place and a freshly embedded active fixed income strategy aimed at generating attractive yields and capable of swiftly adjusting to changing market conditions.

 

We will continue to provide ongoing updates on our views and investment positioning through posts like this and as we meet. If you have questions about investment strategy, please let us know and we will make sure to review details at our next meeting. And while we don’t recommend fixating on short-term market fluctuations, if you would like to check specific investment performance across all your accounts, the Orion Portal is available 24/7. Thank you for your continued trust and allowing us to coordinate your asset management as part of our Family CFO services! 

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By Dale Raimann January 7, 2026
As we closed out 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continued its work to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. In our previous update , we shared how the inflation shock of 2022 reshaped our approach to fixed income and led to a more nimble, systematic positioning of bond assets. That proactive discipline remains a cornerstone of our investment process. As we wrapped up 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continues efforts to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. With the Fed reducing overnight lending rates for the third time, recent IPC discussions have turned to another critical focus area: cash management. Why Cash Strategy Matters Now With interest rates still elevated and market uncertainty persisting, many investors hold larger-than-usual cash positions. While cash provides stability, it also introduces opportunity cost if left idle. One of our IPC objectives is to ensure that excess cash works harder for you, without compromising liquidity for emergencies or near-term cash needs. Refining Our Cash Allocation Policy For our clients with larger cash needs (generally more than 5% or $50k of liquid assets in cash or money market funds), we are shifting to a proactive T-Bill management strategy, or other suitable investments based on goals and circumstances. For our clients holding less than $50k in cash or money market, we have retained money market for liquidity, but we have made a switch to the default money market fund we are using. Risk and Tax Aware Money Market Selection While yields are similar across money markets today, the underlying investments in each money market fund vary quite a bit. For example, Schwab Prime Money Market (ticker SWVXX) offers a slightly higher yield but invests in asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), introducing a modest credit risk. In contrast, Schwab Government Money Market (ticker SNVXX), invests primarily in U.S. Treasuries and government-backed securities, making it virtually risk-free and often state income tax-advantaged. With lower risk and only about 10/100’s of 1% yield difference, our IPC has proactively transitioned clients from SWVXX to SNVXX, to prioritize safety and tax efficiency over a marginal yield difference. Connecting Back to Our Broader Strategy These cash management refinements build on the fixed income strategy we recently outlined. By reducing exposure to inflation-sensitive bonds and implementing a more systematic approach, we are positioning portfolios to be more resilient across potentially weaker or higher-rate environments. Optimizing cash allocations and minimizing credit risk within money markets reinforces the same core principle—protecting downside risk while prudently capturing incremental return opportunities. Looking Ahead As we enter 2026, our investment approach remains focused and disciplined. We continue to prioritize liquidity for cash needs, thoughtful risk management, and systematic investment strategies designed to adapt to evolving market and economic conditions. This proactive framework supports long-term portfolio resilience while remaining aligned with your financial objectives. If you have questions about how these updates may impact your investments, cash management, or overall financial plan, we encourage you to connect with your financial advisor at Buttonwood. Our team is committed to delivering personalized wealth management and asset allocation strategies—regardless of market or economic uncertainty. Thank you for your continued trust and for allowing us to coordinate your asset management as part of our Family CFO services.
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